Liverpool win 0-0

How the Reds emerged as favorites in the Premier League title race 🏆

Mo Salah celebrates his second-half goal against Brighton – his 16th PL goal of the season

In a weekend where the soccer world turned its attention to a top-of-the-table clash between Man City and Arsenal at the Etihad, it was Liverpool who quietly emerged as victors of the season’s most consequential match-week. The Reds came from behind to defeat ninth-place Brighton on Saturday, sending them to the top of the Premier League on 67 points with nine matches remaining.

Things only got better for Liverpool fans from there, as Man City and Arsenal played out to a scoreless draw in a cagey affair, and Everton lost to Bournemouth after conceding an own goal in stoppage time.

The season is far from finished, but this weekend felt like a pivotal moment in the tightest title race in over a decade.

It seems the stars are aligning for the Reds to win a 20th league title in what could be a fairytale ending to the Jürgen Klopp era, and the odds are in their favor.

New leaders in the clubhouse

For the first time this season, Man City aren’t favorites to win the league. Liverpool now have the best title odds according to the Opta supercomputer, winning the title in 47.7% of simulations. 📈

  • City’s odds decreased by 12.4%, making them second-favorites with a 33.5% chance of winning the league.

  • Arsenal’s title odds remain unchanged at 18.8%.

Liverpool also have an easier strength of schedule than their rivals. The Reds’ opponents in the run-in are underperforming their open-play xG more than those of Man City and Arsenal.

  • Liverpool's opponents: -0.08 per game

  • Arsenal's opponents: -0.02 per game

  • Manchester City's opponents: -0.01 per game

City and Arsenal not only face tougher schedules, but are “burdened” with the task of having to face tougher competition in the Champions League. Klopp is afforded the luxury of potentially being able to rest some of his star players against Atalanta in the Europa League, while City and Arsenal will surely go all out for their clashes with Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, respectively.

Tottenham could be king-makers

This is something I never thought I’d say: Tottenham could play a key role in the title race down the stretch. Just weeks after drawing 1-1 with City, Spurs have the distinct misfortune of playing both Arsenal and Liverpool in the final weeks.

While finishing in the top four is the goal for fifth-place Tottenham, they can always fall back on potentially playing spoiler to their arch-rivals when they meet later this month. 👀